Thursday, November 12, 2009

Quebec's Hockey Dreams May Give Harper His Majority

Quebec Colisee

From The National Post:

This week's federal byelections, in which the Conservatives grabbed a seat away from the Bloc Quebecois, will be analyzed for what portent they may hold in a future general election. But such tea leaf reading is an uncertain endeavour for a variety of reasons -- not the least of which is the ridiculously low voter turnout. It's hard to predict what most people think when most people didn't vote.

In any case, those gazing into the electoral crystal ball should probably focus more on a part of la belle province where people weren't voting this week: Quebec City. With Quebec being one of the keys to a Tory majority, the government is on the cusp of a winning plan in the province's capital.

Read more ....

My Comment: For an outsider .... the common remark is .... "you got to be kidding". But for people in the region .... this is a very important issue. Will support from Ottawa for an NHL team have an impact .... definitely. For Conservatives in the region, this will be a feel good issue, one in which they cannot lose.

Looking at it from an economics point of view, supporting an NHL team does not make sense. The market is not big enough to accommodate a new team. But hey .... when did politicians care about economics.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Quebec's ADQ Leader Blames Other For His Misfortunes

Photo: ADQ Leader Gilles Taillon, left, announced his resignation Tuesday. (CBC)

ADQ Leader Blames Tories For His Undoing -- CBC

MNA Gérard Deltell still thinking about a run for party leadership.

One day after announcing his resignation, Action Démocratique du Québec Leader Gilles Taillon says he was the victim of a putsch organized by the former "owners" of the party.

Taillon settled his accounts in an open letter distributed to the media Wednesday, accusing former leader Mario Dumont, other influential members of the ADQ, and the federal Conservative Party.

Read more ....

Update: Outgoing ADQ boss blames federal Tories for his party's internal shenanigans -- Canadian Press

My Comment: What a mess .... and Action Démocratique du Québec Leader Gilles Taillon has no one to blame but himself. But what is going to happen is that this mess is going to smear others .... including other members in the ADQ and the Conservative Party In Ottawa.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Quebec's ADQ Party Is Imploding

Gilles Taillon. Photograph by: Mathieu Bélanger, Reuters

ADQ Leader Wants Police Investigation, New Leadership Race -- CTV News

QUEBEC — Action democratique du Quebec Leader Gilles Taillon wants provincial police to investigate what he calls "troubling aspects" in the party's finances.

Taillon also told a news conference in Quebec City today he wants the beleaguered party to hold another leadership race after less than a month on the job.

Taillon's comments on the ADQ financing come a few weeks after the party announced it would cut off ties with members of the Conservative party, including Senator Leo Housakos.

Read more ....

More News On The Demise Of The ADQ

ADQ leader Gilles Taillon calls for new leadership race -- Montreal Gazette
ADQ leader resigns -- CBC News
Quebec political scandals rock ADQ & Liberals, federal Tories refuse comment -- Canadian Press
ADQ RIP SVP -- Macleans Magazine
Show us the money, say ADQ defectors -- Montreal Gazette
Beleaguered ADQ chief wants out -- Globe And Mail

My Comment: This situation provides an opportunity for the Federalists in Quebec, and the Conservatives in particular. The ADQ have always split a good portion of the Federalist and soft nationalist vote to their cause .... thereby permitting the PQ to come into the middle to win elections.

The demise of the ADQ will now end this. The key now is how will the Federalists take advantage of this situation. The Conservative win in yesterdays byelection in the rural riding of Quebec may give an indication on where this may be going.

Conservatives Win 2 Byelections, 1 At Bloc's Expense

Photo: Four ridings were up for grabs in Monday's federal byelections — one each in British Columbia and Nova Scotia and two in Quebec. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

From The CBC:

Bloc holds on to Montreal riding, NDP wins in B.C.

The Conservatives scored two federal byelection wins Monday, upsetting the Bloc Québécois in eastern Quebec and cruising to an easy victory in Nova Scotia.

The Bloc easily retained the riding of Hochelaga in Montreal's east end, while the New Democrats had no trouble holding on to a seat in British Columbia.

Conservative Bernard Genereux, the former mayor of La Pocatière, scored an upset in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière du loup in eastern Quebec, taking more than 42 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Bloc's Nancy Gagnon, with just under 38 per cent.

Read more ....

My Comment: This is an unexpected surprise for the Conservatives .... especially in Quebec. They also did better in the Montreal riding, as well as finishing a respectable 2nd in B.C.

The Bloc did a heavy push in support of the gun registry which clearly flat in Eastern Quebec.The NDP won in BC opposing the Harmonization tax .... which worked for them even though they are in favor of raising the GST. The message from the Conservatives could have been better refined .... but it was not.

The big losers were the Liberals .... their popular vote went down, and the Green party was non-existent in the vote count.

I will comment more on the Liberal loss of popular vote in the next few posts.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Lawyers Dominate Politics, But Not One Running In Monday's Byelections

Parliament Building

From The Canadian Press:

Monday's federal byelections will choose four new members of Parliament from a list of candidates that includes three farmers, four municipal politicians, a principal, a plumber, and an engineer — but not a single lawyer, a profession that dominates Canadian politics.

Since Confederation, 1009 lawyers have sat in the House of Commons, nearly twice as many as politicians from any other profession, according to data collected by the Parliament.

Fifteen of Canada's 22 prime ministers have practised law. Stephen Harper, an economist, is the country's first non-lawyer leader since 1980.

Read more ....

My Comment: No lawyers .... I feel better already.

Bloc Hopes Gun Registry Triggers Byelection Win

From The CBC:

The Bloc Québécois is using gun control to curry favour in a pair of federal byelections Monday that are seen as mid-term popularity contests for the sovereigntist party.

The Bloc is fighting to hold on to the Hochelaga riding in east-end Montreal, and the Montmagnuy-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup riding in eastern Quebec, two regions where its candidates face close races with their opponents.

Read more ....

My comment: the opposition is split, and 40% of the riding who are separatists .... and they are going to vote for the Bloc.

Tories Position By-Elections As Test Of Ignatieff

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff speaks with reporters on Wednesday, November 4, 2009, after the party's caucus meeting on Parliament Hill. The Canadian Press

From Globe And Mail:

In votes across the country Monday, race for second place is in many cases just as important as winning.

Liberals expect to be shut out of four federal by-elections and their rivals are already positioning Monday's results as a rejection of Michael Ignatieff's shaky leadership.

The contests will most likely amount to a confirmation of the status quo, with the Bloc Quebecois hanging on to two ridings in Quebec, New Democrats holding on to another in British Columbia and the Tories reclaiming a Nova Scotia riding that had been a longtime stronghold until Bill Casey, a former Conservative MP, captured it as an independent in 2008.

Read more ....

My Comment: The Liberal Party is probably coming in second in two of these byelections, third in the other two.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Lax Laws In Canada Allow Corruption To Flourish


From The Montreal Gazette:

Politicians of all stripes continue to protect a corrupt system.

The allegations concerning Montreal city politicians and officials accepting gifts and donations from companies that deal with the city, along with similar scandals across Canada, reveal the loopholes in ethics laws that continue to undermine our democracy.

Every government in Canada should have long ago passed laws that:

Prohibit donations by corporations or organizations (because these entities don't vote);

Limit donations or gifts by individuals to any party, candidate or official to a combined total of no more than $500 a year;

Read more ...

My Comment: Money is the mother's milk of politics .... this is something that they will never change.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

The Perils Of Politicizing A Pandemic

From The Globe And Mail:

1. The politics of H1N1. Did the Ignatieff Liberals really plant one of their own to complain on national television about the shortage of vaccine? Indeed, the accusations are flying today with the Harper PMO sending out an alert to all of its MPs, Senators and staffers urging them not to respond or comment about a news story on CBC's The National last night “in which an employee of Michael Ignatieff’s office appears in a ‘street interview’ as an ordinary citizen concerned about the supply of H1N1 vaccine.”

Read more ....

My Comment: This is stupid. Let the crisis run through its course. Exploiting it for political reasons will only get you burned.

Liberal Fundraising Takes A Plunge In Third Quarter

From The Edmonton Sun:

OTTAWA — Liberal fundraising took a nose-dive in the third quarter after a near invisible summer for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and after threats that he would force an election battered the Liberal brand.

Numbers published by Elections Canada reveal the Liberals only took in $1.94 million in donations in July, August and September compared to the $3.87 million they attracted in the three previous months.

Read more ....

My Comment: Liberal supporters are clearly not happy. This is a reflection of what the money people are thinking about when it comes to Mr. Ignatieff's leadership.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Winning An Election Can Be Harzadous To Your Helath

Photo: Pierre Lambert died of a heart attack Sunday night moments after finding out he had been re-elected as a city councillor in Notre Dame des Prairies, located about 70 kilometres northeast of Montreal. Photograph by: ., Photo courtesy of the Town of Notre Dame des Prairies

Quebec Politician Dies Seconds After Learning He's Re-elected -- Toronto Star

MONTREAL – One minute, popular local politician Pierre Lambert was revelling in his re-election to town council.

The next, he was sprawled on the floor of city hall, supporters trying feverishly to revive him from a devastating heart attack without success.

Lambert's death after a close-fought election has stunned the community of Notre-Dame-des-Prairies, 65 kilometres northeast of Montreal.

Read more ....

My Comment: What happens now?

Montreal Municipal Elections -- Complete News Roundup

Gérald Tremblay (left), Louise Harel (centre) and Richard Bergeron
fought a tight race for mayor in Montreal. (CBC)


Tremblay Wins Montreal Mayor Race -- CBC

Gérald Tremblay won a third straight term as mayor of Montreal despite a campaign dominated by allegations of corruption involving the Mob and construction companies.

Tremblay, who leads the Union Montréal municipal party, beat rivals Louise Harel and Richard Bergeron in a tight race Sunday.

The mayor said he is "conscious that the confidence of Montrealers has been put to the test."

"The citizens want change and we will incarnate that change," Tremblay said.

Read more ....

More News On Yesterday's Elections

Complete Election Coverage From The Montreal Gazette -- Montreal Gazette

Montreal Mayor Tremblay wins third term -- Montreal Gazette
Montreal mayor keeps his job -- Toronto Star
Tremblay re-elected mayor -- CTV
Voters' message is clear as mud -- Montreal Gazette
Projet Montréal shines in Plateau -- CBC
Harel: I'll continue to fight corruption -- Montreal Gazette
Tearful Forcillo thanks army of volunteers -- Montreal Gazette
Ex-cop poised to take over troubled part of city -- Montreal Gazette
For the most part, no serious delays in casting ballots -- Montreal Gazette
Harel after-vote party fizzles -- Montreal Gazette
Gerald Tremblay vows to rebuild public trust after narrow election victory -- Canadian Press

Round-up of suburban races -- CTV
Three mayors ousted -- Montreal Gazette

Beaconsfield voters boot Benedetti from office -- Montreal Gazette
Benedetti falls in West Island election -- CBC

LaSalle's Barbe rides apparent landslide -- Montreal Gazette

Steinberg clear winner in bitter race -- Montreal Gazette

Former Bloc MP elected as Longueuil mayor -- CBC
St-hilaire upsets in Longueuil -- Montreal Gazette

Vaillancourt wins 6th term as Laval mayor -- CBC
Vaillancourt sweeps council in repeat landslide -- Montreal Gazette

Labeaume cruises to mayoral victory in Quebec City -- CBC
Quebec City Mayor Regis Labeaume re-elected -- CTV

Sherbrooke has first new mayor in 15 years -- CBC

Gatineau Mayor Marc Bureau wins 2nd term -- CBC

Blame low turnout on cynicism - or disconnection -- Montreal Gazette
Get out your broom Mr. Mayor -- Montreal Gazette opinion
Rebalancing of power -- Montreal Gazette
Let's hope Tremblay is committed to reform -- Montreal Gazette

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Quebec's Growing Construction Scandal Starting To Impact The Federal Conservatives

Leo Housakos, then a Conservative fundraiser, waits to testify before the Commons government operations committee on February 28, 2008. REUTERS

Housakas To Get The Boot? -- Bourque

Just when the Tories thought a majority was a done-deal, the storm clouds are gathering. Bourque has learned that embattled Conservative Senator Leo Housakos, linked to key players in the dramatically escalating Quebec construction scandal, imbedded in the Senate until the year 2043 no less, and persona non grata at the post-Mario Dumont ADQ, may be turfed from the Conservative caucus because of lingering ethics issues that have elicited a barrage of questions in the House of Commons to the extent that the Quebec politico himself has called in the Senate ethics officer to probe potential derring-do and unknown nefarious deeds. Senior Tory sources who've read the tea leaves and who spoke to Bourque on condition of anonymity assert "the situation is untenable". Such is the breach of trust within the highest echelons of Team Harper, otherwise preoccupied with ravishing glances at their current poll numbers. Said one keener who's shared a pizza with the PM while marveling at Don Cherry's resplendent blazer during a hockey broadcast, "Housakos is expendable as a Tory. He's kicking up a lot of dust in Quebec, the absolute last place we need to have a dust storm." It remains unclear how, or if, Housakos will be dealt with by the PM's political handlers, his buddy Soudas runs interference and may have to be deleted too, but it is understood that the threat Housakos made to his detractor last week won him no favours. The PM is said to remain unimpressed by his contingent of Quebec politicians. As one top-shelf Tory put it, "Pierre, we are so high in the polls these days, the only place we can go is down. And the only way we can go down is if we screw up. That's why Housakos needs to be nipped in the bud." Meanwhile, Paul Desmarais' newspaper La Presse is now reporting that Housakos crony Giulio Maturi is suddenly out as senior Harper organizer in the Montreal area and is "no longer employed by the Conservative Party", according to a spokesperson for Public Works Minister Christian Paradis, Harper's Quebec lieutenant. Developing.

My Comment: Kudos to Bourque for putting all the strings together. This has the possibility of severely damaging the Conservatives in Quebec for the next two election cycles. Quebecers are sick and tired of corruption in the political system, and any whiff of it in any party will hurt it in the next election.

I am not surprised that Harper and his team are getting rid of these men .... this fits into the mood in the Prime Minister's office that their Quebec contingent does not serve the Conservative Party's goals very well. This growing scandal will give the Conservative Party the opportunity to clean out house .... expect more people being replaced in the next few weeks.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Trouble Brewing In Dannystan?

Photo: Premier Danny Williams

From The Chronicle Herald:

ST. JOHN’S, N.L. — Premier Danny Williams has such an iron-clad clutch on power in Newfoundland and Labrador that some political watchers have dubbed the province "Dannystan."

That may be changing.

The loss of two high-profile cabinet ministers in less than a month and an abject climbdown over threatened health-care cuts suggest a slip in the premier’s grip.

Read more ....

My Comment: His support is rock solid. As long as the oil flows and he uses PM Harper and Quebec as his bogeyman, he will stay in power for years.

The Battle For Brampton

A one-time Grit, influential organizer Harvinder Singh Dhaliwal will campign for the Tories against Liberal MP and fellow Sikh Ruby Dhalla. Peter Power / The Globe and Mail

From The Globe And Mail:

Sikhs from Ruby Dhalla's riding are defecting in droves to the Conservatives, marking a huge shift in immigrant politics and giving Stephen Harper his first foothold in the traditionally Liberal GTA.

In a Brampton living room last weekend, Sunny Gill helped seal the conversion of a young Sikh truck driver who claims he can move 300 votes from the Liberals to the Conservatives.

The truck driver was just the latest domino to fall favourably for Mr. Gill, the local Conservative South Asian outreach co-ordinator. It was a satisfying moment.

Read more ....

My Comment: This is a Liberal Party vulnerability. Ethnic communities come from traditionally conservative societies, they share little if any of the social liberal policies of the Liberals. Gay rights, abortion, government's role in education and the family .... Sikhs, Muslims, Hindus .... these religious and ethnic communities are on record of being strongly opposed to these social and government policies.

Can the Conservative Party exploit this advantage .... at the moment I do not see this happening, but once the ball starts rolling .... the days of a Liberal lock on this vote will be gone.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Ignatieff Would Do Worse In Election Than Dion: Poll

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff interacts with student Payton Kelly before reading a book to a pre-kindergarten class, at an early childhood learning centre in Ottawa Oct. 20, 2009. Photograph by: Blair Gable, Reuters

From Canada.com:

OTTAWA — A new poll shows support for the federal Liberal party has weakened so much that, were an election to be held today, Michael Ignatieff would lead his party to a worse showing than his predecessor, Stephane Dion, did last October.

“The Liberals, these days, just have no traction at all,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of polling firm Ipsos Reid, which provided its latest results exclusively to Canwest News Service and Global National.

Read more ....

My Comment:If this poll is accurate, Michael Ignatieff should count himself lucky. If he was successful in pulling the plug on the government last month, he would be looking for alternative work by now.

It is clear that a majority of Canadians are not interested in an election. It is also clear that the Liberals and NDP are bleeding support to the Bloc and the Green Party. The only question that one can ask is .... will these voters come back in the future, or has the NDP and Liberals lost them for good. My gut is telling me that some of these voters may not be coming back.

As for the Conservatives, Quebec is denying them their majority again. PM Harper and his staff must formulate a new strategy and approach to winning in this battleground. Unfortunately, I do not see anyone in the PMO's office or in the Party who understands the dynamics in Quebec and what it takes to win here. They are certainly lacking a good spokesperson who can make their case in this province.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

The Wild Tumble Of Michael Ignatieff


From The Montreal Gazette:

The Conservatives might be competitive in Quebec as the Liberals fall.

No leader of a Canadian political party has ever taken such a tumble in public opinion as Michael Ignatieff has since he told Stephen Harper his time was up on the first day of September.

It's a stunning fall from political grace, entirely of his own making. And the problem with a free fall, is that there's no way of knowing when you've bottomed out. Until then, Ignatieff could win the Nobel Peace Prize for doing nothing, as Barack Obama just has, and his numbers would still keep falling.

Read more ....

My Comment: Ian MacDonald is right .... the Conservative fortunes in Quebec are dependent on the misfortunes of the Liberal Party .... a fact that the Quebec Liberals have been very effective in doing.

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Election A Tantalizing Prospect To Energized Tories

Prime Minister Stephen Harper responds to a question during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Tuesday, Sept.29, 2009. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld)

From CTV/Canadian Press:

OTTAWA — This week's images of Prime Minister Stephen Harper riding the prow of a locomotive in Saint John, N.B., flanked by two gainfully employed rail workers, said it all about his government's current fortunes.

The Conservatives are rolling right along with their political agenda and message of economic recovery. The opposition Liberals seem to have gone off the rails, at least for now.

Read more ....

My Comment: I am sure that if the polls favor their winning a majority .... they would visit the Governor General to announce an election. The fact is that they do not have the votes for a majority .... hence we are at this status quo, and nothing is going to change. The Conservatives are aware of this .... but the Liberals do not.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Ont. Liberals Pass Byelection Test In St. Paul's

Dr. Eric Hoskins, the new Liberal MPP-elect for St. Paul's, takes in a moment
of applause on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009.


From CTV:

TORONTO — Ontario's governing Liberals managed to hang on to a longtime Toronto seat Thursday, despite fierce attacks on the party's controversial tax harmonization plan and spending scandals at provincial agencies.

Dr. Eric Hoskins, a former adviser to Lloyd Axworthy, won the byelection in the midtown riding of St. Paul's which was held by former cabinet minister Michael Bryant for a decade before he left politics in June.

Read more ....

My Comment: This result is a surprise, especially with the Liberal government's commitment to raise taxes across the board when harmonization takes place. I did not expect this result.

.

Conservatives Survive Confidence Test

Ways and Mean motion approved, thanks to the support of the Bloc Québécois and the NDP

From The Globe And Mail:

The Conservative government survived a confidence test this morning – as expected – thanks to the support of MPs from the Bloc Québécois and NDP.

The 224-74 vote approves a Ways and Means motion that contains measures tied to the January, 2009 budget. Now that the motion has passed, the same measures will be introduced as government legislation. As that bill moves through the House, it will be subject to further confidence votes before receiving final approval and becoming law.

Read more ....

My Comment: The Liberals should have also voted for the measure. The home renovation program is very popular .... voting against it opens up criticism that can now be directed at them. The Bloc looked at this issue and easily voted for it. It is popular in rural Quebec, and that is where their base is.

As for the NDP .... at 12% in the polls and no money in the bank .... having an election right no would have seriously hurt the party.

If we are going to have an election .... it will be in the spring, and after the Vancouver Olympics.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Don't Expect An Election


From The Montreal Gazette:

"The tumult and the shouting dies; the captains and the kings depart." - Rudyard Kipling

- - -

The tumult and shouting are at full cry, while the captains and the kings aren't going anywhere. Not this week anyway.

This minority House will be in session for a while yet, probably until the budget in March, following the Olympic Games in Vancouver.

Read more
....

My Comment: I will have to agree. There is definitely no interest in the NDP (or the electorate) to have an election right now .... which is a smart political move on their part.

I doubt that we will have a vote until the spring when the Federal Budget is brought down. Until then .... this blog will have a story each day and a commentary from me on what I think is happening.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Bloc Support For Tories To Avert Election Call

From The CBC:

The Bloc Québécois will support the Conservative government's budget motion on Friday, averting a federal election call this week.

The government is bringing forward a financial ways-and-means motion, which includes the popular tax credits for home renovation. It is considered a confidence issue, and its defeat could trigger an election.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe said his party had gone over the motion and supports it, in particular the tax credit.

Read more ....

My Comment: The tax credit and the UI benefits package helps Quebec in a big way. The Bloc is doing something that is politically smart for them.

Monday, September 14, 2009

One More Reason Why An Election Is Not Going To Be Called

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives hold a nine-point lead ahead of the Liberals, according to the latest Ipsos Reid survey. Photograph by: Paul Darrow, Reuters

Latest Poll Gives Tories 9-Point Lead Over Grits -- The Montreal Gazette

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives continue to hold a commanding lead over their political rivals, while Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff risks taking the blame in the event of a fall election that Canadians clearly do not want, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.

At the same time, the NDP have slid to their lowest level of support since the last election, suggesting party leader Jack Layton has an incentive to at least temporarily prop up the Harper government.

Read more ....

My Comment: A 5 point spread .... I can see an election. But a nine point spread. Hmmmm .... no.

What Is Happening In Quebec

Back In The Quebec Game -- National Post

There are two Quebecs represented in the House of Commons, Montreal and the Rest of Quebec (RoQ). The math of Quebec's 75 seats is very simple. There are 25 seats in Montreal, and 50 in RoQ.

The Liberals are currently a Montreal party, with all 14 of their seats in the city and the bedroom community of Laval. The Conservatives are an RoQ party, with eight of their 10 seats in the 418 area around Quebec City. And the Bloc is two mints in one, with nearly a dozen seats in Montreal and Laval, but most of its current 48 seats in RoQ. Oh, and the NDP has one member, Tom Mulcair in Outremont.

Read more ....

My Comment: If the Conservatives want to delay an election, one reason will be because of Quebec.

Sunday, September 13, 2009

Canadian Election? Is Someone Getting Cold Feet?

NDP Leader Jack Layton speaks with CTV News Channel, on Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009.

Fall Election Not Inevitable, Layton Says -- CTV

NDP Leader Jack Layton says he doesn't believe an election is inevitable, despite speculation that a non-confidence vote next week could topple the Conservative government.

A ways-and-means motion is expected to be introduced in Parliament next Friday. If the opposition parties -- including the NDP -- vote against the Tories, Canadians would have their fourth election in five years.

Read more ....

My Comment: The NDP are not ready for an election. Their campaign coffers are empty, and the spirit is not there .... hell .... no one's spirit in most of the country is there to fight an election (including myself).

Saturday, September 12, 2009

We Are Taking The Weekend Off. Blogging Will Resume Monday

CEW Editor: The election is going to be called at the end of the upcoming week .... or the following week.

It will then be 4 weeks of heavy media coverage, of which Canada Election Watch will participate.

We are taking a break before this period of time .... recharge the batteries .... and to get ready for the show.

Heavy and intensive blogging will start this Monday, September 14.

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Video Reveals 'Real Harper': Ignatieff

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff tells reporters in Montreal on Thursday that candid remarks made by Stephen Harper reveal the prime minister's spiteful attitude toward Canadians. (Paul Chiasson/Canadian Press)

From The CBC:

Candid remarks made by Stephen Harper to Conservative supporters during a private meeting last week reveal the prime minister’s “spiteful” attitude toward Canadians, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said Thursday.

“This in-camera speech by Mr. Harper has settled once and for all his character as a Conservative leader but also has revealed the true values — the spiteful attitude towards institutions, spite towards Canadians who are helping other Canadians, spite for our institutions,” Ignatieff said in Montreal.

Read more ....

My Comment: I saw the video .... and I learned nothing new from it.

Hmmmm ... let's see.

Harper is a Conservative. Check.
He does not like Liberals, Socialists, and Separatists. Check.
He will put people into the judiciary whose view of the law closely mirrors his conservative viewpoint. Check.
The Liberals will try their best to form an alliance with the NDP and the Bloc. Check.

This is our revelation of who Harper is.

You would have had to live in a cave for the past 5 years to only realize this now.

The Liberals are in trouble if this is their issue.

Are The Conservatives Within Reach Of A Majority?


Majority 'In Reach,' Harper Says -- The Toronto Star

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has told his party's faithful he believes a majority government "is in reach" for his party the next time there's a federal election, CBC reports.

Harper's comments were reportedly made last week to Conservative supporters in Sault Ste. Marie at a meeting that was closed to the media. CBC's The National says Harper's speech was videotaped by a student in the audience and a copy of the address was sent to the Liberal party, which sent it to CBC.

Read more ....

My Comment: From where I stand .... I do not see it. They are about to lose their seats in Quebec, and their support is Ontario is equal to the Liberals. Maybe his internal polling tells him that Liberal leader Ignatieff's negatives are very high (which they are) .... but that still will not be enough.

This Is Why The Tories Have Problems In Quebec

Photo: The loss of Pierre Brien is yet another blow to declining Tory fortunes in the province, and a potential new weapon for the separatists in any coming election. THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Ryan Remiorz

Tory Quebec Adviser Eyes Move To Bloc -- Canoe

OTTAWA — A disenchanted Tory adviser in Quebec is now in talks with the Bloc Quebecois about running for the separatist party.

The loss of Pierre Brien is yet another blow to declining Tory fortunes in the province, and a potential new weapon for the separatists in any coming election.

Brien sat as a Bloc Quebecois MP until 2003, when he left the party to run for the Action Democratique du Quebec (ADQ).

He was working on contract as an adviser to Public Works Minister Christian Paradis — Stephen Harper’s Quebec lieutenant — until last month.

Brien confirmed Thursday that he is in preliminary talks with the Bloc.

Read more ....

My Comment: This is so symbolic of what is wrong with the Conservatives in Quebec. Separatists have no interest in helping the Federal Conservative Party .... they never have .... they never will. Their alliance will always be to the PQ and to the Bloc.

If they do decide to work with a Federal Party, it is not because they agree with the policy ... they do not .... they do so in order to get a paycheck (they also have needs and bills to be paid).

The Liberals in Quebec figured this out a long time ago, and they always have had a policy to filter out the separatists in their ranks. I suggest that the Conservatives start to think like this also .... sooner .... rather than later.

Working with the ADQ .... a defunct political party if there ever was one .... what are the Conservatives thinking in Ottawa.

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Will The Liberals Form A Coalition With The Other Parties? -- 2 Commentaries

Stephane Dion debates with Jack Layton, Stephen Harper, Gilles Duceppe
and Elizabeth May on Oct. 1, 2008. REUTERS


Tories To Stoke Fear Of Opposition Coalition -- The Globe And Mail

Stephen Harper's Conservatives have decided their election strategy will rely in part on reviving the ghosts of last December.

The fleeting, four-day coalition that opposition parties formed in late 2008 to unseat Mr. Harper's Conservatives was deeply unpopular outside Quebec. The Tories plan to resurrect its fading memory to rattle voters, warning that backing opposition parties will bring instability.

Read more ....

Tories To Warn Of Second Coalition -- National Post

Now that Iggy is no longer iffy in his official government opposition, the prospect of parliamentary elections becoming the corporate equivalent of an annual general meeting is no longer in much doubt.

Sadly, seemingly unavoidably, off we go for the second vote in a year with only the writ-drop date and the precise trigger providing the suspense for this insane $300-million ego-stimulus package.

Read more
....

The Polls Show That The Liberals Cannot Win -- An Analysis


From The Montreal Gazette:

There was another poll out yesterday confirming that the Liberals would be going into a fall election behind the Conservatives, which again makes you wonder why Michael Ignatieff wants to pull the trigger.

A Strategic Counsel poll for CTV and the Globe and Mail has the Conservatives leading the Liberals 35 to 30 per cent, with the NDP at 14 per cent and the Bloc at 12 per cent nationally, which translates to 49 per cent in Quebec, with les rouges at 23 per cent and les bleus at 16 per cent.

Read more ....

My Comment:
Ian MacDonald's analysis is flawless. I agree with him 100%

Election Would Kill Tougher Crime Bills: Van Loan

Minister of Public Safety Peter Van Loan makes an announcement on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Monday, June 1, 2009. (Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

From CTV:

HALIFAX -- Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan warned Wednesday that a federal election would jeopardize efforts by the Conservative government to get tough on crime.

Van Loan said if the Liberals force an "unnecessary vote" it will kill several bills currently on the order paper.

"What is of concern with an election looming is the number of pieces of legislation that we have on the tackling crime front that would be at risk," he told a news conference shortly after announcing almost $2 million in crime prevention spending.

Read more ....

My Comment: Crime is regarded to be the #1 priority for most Canadians .... this is a good issue for the Conservatives to run on .... and they are.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Are The Liberals Getting Cold Feet? -- A Commentary



Liberals Mutter Darkly Over Ignatieff Election Bravado -- John Ivison, National Post

Michael Ignatieff's decision to call time on the Conservatives appears to have unified his party as never before -- it seems he now presides over an entire caucus of what Jean Chrétien famously called "nervous Nellies."

Maybe that's going too far. There must be a Liberal MP somewhere, sitting on a fat majority, who welcomes the chance to test the patience of voters less than a year after the last election.

Read more ....

My Comment:
The Liberals cannot back down now .... they would look foolish in front of their supporters if they did.

Election Chances 'More Than Great': Duceppe

Photo: Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe walks by a Bloc pre-election campaign poster Tuesday after the first day of a two-day caucus meeting. (Jacques Boissinot/Canadian Press)

From The CBC:

A federal election appears to be inevitable, Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe said on Tuesday, as his party launched an ad campaign that claims there's little difference between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.

"Mr. Ignatieff doesn't seem to look like he's going to back down, and Mr. Harper is not the kind of man who makes compromises or who achieves consensus … so I think the chances of an election are great — more than great," Duceppe said in Quebec City following a caucus meeting.

Read more ....

My Comment: The Bloc are well positioned in this election .... they are going to match what they did last time ... maybe even pick a seat or two from the Conservatives.

Elizabeth May Seeks Federal Nomination In B.C. Riding

From CTV:

Federal Green party Leader Elizabeth May is jumping across Canada in her attempt to win the Green's first elected seat in Parliament.

May has announced she will seek the nomination in Saanich Gulf Islands, the B.C. riding currently held by Conservative Gary Lunn, minister of state for sport.

Read more ....

New Poll Puts The Conservatives In The Lead


From CTV:

A new poll suggests that the Liberals might want to tread carefully into election waters as they have lost some support over the summer, particularly in Quebec.

A Strategic Counsel poll taken in early September for CTV and the Globe and Mail has the Liberals down five points with 30 per cent support nationally, compared to the Conservatives' 35 per cent.

Read more ....

My Comment: The poll was done last week. I will not put too much credence into the poll if I am a Conservative. As A Liberal or NDPer, this should give me pause.

The sample size was 1,000. Small .... but still significant. Also .... the West and the Atlantic Provinces were under represented in this poll.

Democracy Watch Challenges Stephen Harper In Court Over Election Call

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper welcomes competitors to the opening ceremonies of World Skills Calgary 2009 at the Stampede Grounds in Calgary August 31, 2009. Photograph by: Stuart Gradon, Calgary Herald

From The Montreal Gazette:

OTTAWA — Advocacy group Democracy Watch will try Tuesday to convince a judge to rule that Prime Minister Stephen Harper broke his own fixed election date law and violated the Canadian Charter of Rights when he called an election last fall.

In early September, 2008, Harper asked Gov. Gen. Michaelle Jean to dissolve Parliament, claiming that the opposition parties weren’t prepared to support his legislative agenda. Jean agreed, and Canadians went to the polls on Oct. 14.

Read more ....

My Comment: A fixed election law makes a lot of sense .... but it is not workable in a minority government situation.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Poll-Weary Public Pining For A Majority, Analysts Say

From the Toronto Star:

OTTAWA–Do you yearn for the days when federal elections were rare events like eclipses or comets, not an annual chore like raking the leaves?

You're not alone.

After three elections in five years, endless election speculation, Parliament Hill dramas, at least $750 million spent going to the polls and three consecutive minority governments, the bloom, it seems, is off the minority rose.

Read more ....

My Comment: Yeah sure .... people want a majority .... but it has to be the party that they support. The key is to get the independent, a small but influential group. The key battleground ridings will be Ontario and the Atlantic Provinces. The Conservatives need to keep their seats in Quebec (which will be hard), and gain 15 seats elsewhere. The Liberals need to gain sizable numbers in Quebec (+10), and win big in Atlantic Canada, plus a few in the West.

The Liberals' High Hopes For Quebec

From The Globe And Mail:

Ignatieff must attract more new faces if he wants to renovate the party's image.

Another election? Quebeckers are rolling their eyes. If Canadians are indeed once more called to the polls, this will be the sixth time in five years for Quebeckers. Since 2004, on top of three federal elections, there have been two provincial elections, the latest in December, 2008. Not to mention the fact that a federal campaign will likely interfere with municipal elections scheduled throughout the province.

Read more ....

My Comment: A good review of the Liberal position in Quebec .... one in which I agree with. And it is because of their weakness in Quebec that the Tories will form the next minority government .... again.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Rival Green Complains To Elections Canada About Elizabeth May

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, shown during a 2008 federal election debate, is being accused by a rival Green candidate of stacking the odd in her favour in order to win the nomination of a B.C. riding. Photograph by: Geoff Robins, AFP/Getty Images

From The Toronto Star:

VICTORIA — Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, who will formally announce Tuesday she is seeking the nomination in the B.C. riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, is facing allegations by a rival Green candidate that the party is tipping the scales in her favour.

Stuart Hertzog lodged a complaint Thursday with Elections Canada claiming a possible illegal transfer of funds to May's campaign by the party and unfair access to party resources, such as membership lists.

May promptly dismissed Hertzog's allegations.

Read more ....

My Comment: The election has not even been called .... but the bloodletting starts.

Liberals Wage YouTube War On Harper

In fresh attack ads posted on YouTube, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff accuses Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Tories of being "irresponsible" and "disconnected from reality." Photograph by: Pierre Obendrauf, Gazette file photo

From The Montreal Gazette:

Attack ads target Tories' record on economy, environment.

OTTAWA – The Liberal Party was first out of the advertising gate Sunday as the prospect of a fall election loomed large in the background.

The Liberals rolled out a series of ads on the popular video-sharing website YouTube, attacking the Conservative government over its economic and environmental record.

Two of the three ads were in French.

Read more ....

My Comment: Having 2 of the 3 ads in French does not make much sense. The Tories are very weak in Quebec, the real opposition to the Liberals and the one thing that will stop them from forming a majority/minority government is the Bloc. Their French ads must be directed at them.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

No Deals To Save Government: Harper

Minutes ahead of NDP Leader Jack Layton's first public comments on the fall election threat, Prime Minister Stephen Harper Thursday vowed he would not make any backroom deals to sustain his minority government. Photograph by: Reuters, Citizen Special

From The Montreal Gazette:

OTTAWA — Both Prime Minister Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Jack Layton rejected the idea of making backroom deals to avoid a federal election this fall.

Layton, the last of the four political leaders in the House of Commons to respond to Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's declaration Tuesday that his party would defeat the government at the first opportunity in the fall parliamentary session, challenged Harper to to be more flexible on his legislative agenda.

Read more ....

My Comment: I have trouble seeing the Conservatives agreeing to the NDP demands .... and I doubt that the Bloc will be approached.

The probability of an election has just improved.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

No Pinning Duceppe Down On Tories

Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe. Pierre Obendrauf/Canwest News Service

From The Montreal Gazette:

BOIS DES FILION – Maybe yes, maybe no. It depends.

Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe entered into a game of political chicken Wednesday over a possible federal election this fall when he refused to say clearly – unlike Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff a day earlier – where he stands on the future of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s minority Conservative government.

But Duceppe also made it clear that he is not scared of an election, either, if push comes to shove.

Read more ....

My Comment: He is not going to support the Tories .... and PM Harper is not going to call him.

Liberals Won't Raise Taxes: Ignatieff

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff says a Liberal government would erase the $52-billion deficit 'hole' created by Stephen Harper's Conservatives without raising taxes. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)

From The CBC:

No turning back on decision not to support Harper government, Liberal leader says.

A Liberal government would eliminate the $52-billion federal deficit "hole" created by Stephen Harper's Conservatives without raising Canadians' taxes, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said Wednesday, but refused to give details of how he planned to do it.

"Wait and see," Ignatieff told reporters at the end of a news conference at the Liberal caucus retreat in Sudbury, Ont.

Read more ....

My Comment: I did my own little straw poll today, and asked a dozen of my friends on what they thought about this statement of no taxes from Ignatieff. The Conservatives, NDPers and Bloc were no surprise .... but my 3 committed Liberal friends were embarrassed. They know that no one believes this remark, and it only serves to undermine Ignatieff's credibility with the electorate.

No Turning Back For Nervous Liberals

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff acknowledges a standing ovation during a party rally Sept. 1, 2009 in Sudbury. Earlier in the day, Ignatieff told his caucus the party was withdrawing its support for the Conservatives in the Commons. CHRIS WATTIE/REUTERS

From The Toronto Star:


Michael Ignatieff's decision to withdraw his support of Stephen Harper's minority government need not automatically lead to a fall election, but it almost certainly will.

Over the past few weeks, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois have made it clear they should not be counted on to keep the Conservative regime alive.

Read more
....

My Comment: I guess seeing all the pork that Conservatives have been getting from the Harper Government over the summer months was too much for some in the Liberal Party who believe that it belongs to them. Hence .... we are heading for an election.

This is probably a smart move on the part of the Liberals. The economy is improving, and the coming months will involve international summits and the Vancouver Olympics .... all events that will be used as a showcase by the Conservatives and Stephen Harper.

The problem that the Liberals have is .... what is the issue that they are going to run on? More UI? High speed trains? Global warming after a summer that was "frigging" cold. Higher taxes to curb the deficit spending and the spending that they want to do? Power for the sake of power?

All of these issues are not positive issues for the voters.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Ignatieff Is Hinting At An Election -- A News Roundup And Commentaries/Opinions

Canada's Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff speaks during the second day of the Liberal caucus summer retreat in Sudbury, Ontario. Photo Credit: Chris Wattie, Reuters

Stage Set For Fall Election Showdown -- Canadian Press

SUDBURY, Ont. — Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has set the stage for a fall election, warning Prime Minister Stephen Harper: "Your time is up."

But the minority Conservative government could yet survive thanks to an unlikely ally - the NDP now says it may prop up Harper if he's willing to work with them.

Ignatieff delivered a fiery, campaign-style speech to his caucus Tuesday, announcing that the party will no longer support the Tories.

Read more ....

News And Commentary On A Possible Fall Election

Text of Ignatieff's speech to Sudbury Liberal rally -- Toronto Star
Liberals push for fall election -- CBC
Looking ahead to a possible election -- Global
Ignatieff shows his hawkish side -- Globe And Mail
Liberals to table non-confidence motion -- Edmonton Sun
Mark ‘em down as unpersuaded -- Macleans
SNAP ANALYSIS: Backing or defeating government has risks -- Reuters
Anxious Liberals await poll data -- Toronto Star
Don Martin: Ignatieff seeks your vote to remake 2017 -- Don Martin, National Post opinion
Can Ignatieff sell Canadians his $18-billion train? -- Raphael Alexander, National Post
Real-world signs don't point to fall vote -- John Ivison

My Comment: For the Liberals .... it has always been about power and the accumulation of it. What strikes me when I look at them today is that many of my Liberal friends who work in the party are incredibly hungry to grab power again .... and to enjoy the many perks and privileges that it gives. Even people who I know that are Liberal supporters .... and who work in the many crown agencies of the Federal Government (positions given to them by previous Liberal politicians) .... are hungry for the return of the Liberals and the open expense accounts and "freedoms" that they would then enjoy.

This lust for power is blinding them to the reality of what is happening on the ground. There is no hunger for another election, and another minority government. The Conservatives are locked in at 40% of the vote, and they will win a majority of the seats each time in a minority government. The only hope that the Liberals can have of getting power is through a coalition with the other parties .... but this cannot sustain itself for any period of time.

The Bloc cannot support a Liberal Party .... it would undermine their raison d'etre of why they are in Parliament, and it will be a betrayal to their loyal separatist supporters. The NDP will support the Liberals .... but their numbers are insufficient to mean anything. The result will be gridlock .... and a return of the status quo.

The danger for the Liberals is that there could be a backlash. My mother .... who has been a loyal Liberal voter for 50 years, is voting Conservative in the next election .... she is fed up with the constant bickering and mud slinging from the Liberals, and is willing to give the Conservatives a mandate for 4 years. Hmmmm .... if the Liberals can lose my mom ..... the results that they may dream about may not happen.

Ignatieff Says Liberals Will No Longer Support Conservatives

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff speaks Monday during a news conference on the first day of the Liberal caucus summer retreat in Sudbury, Ont. He announced Tuesday he will no longer support the Conservative government, which means the Tories could fall on a key issue in the near future. Photograph by: Reuters, Canwest News Service

From The Montreal Gazette:

SUDBURY, Ont. — Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff announced Tuesday he will no longer support the Conservative government, which means the country could be headed to a national election early in the fall.

Ignatieff made the announcement that he won't vote to prop up the government on the second day of a three-day caucus meeting in this northern Ontario city.

Read more ....

My C0mment: I smell election .... which means that vacation time is now over.