Election A Tantalizing Prospect To Energized Tories

Prime Minister Stephen Harper responds to a question during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Tuesday, Sept.29, 2009. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld)

From CTV/Canadian Press:

OTTAWA — This week's images of Prime Minister Stephen Harper riding the prow of a locomotive in Saint John, N.B., flanked by two gainfully employed rail workers, said it all about his government's current fortunes.

The Conservatives are rolling right along with their political agenda and message of economic recovery. The opposition Liberals seem to have gone off the rails, at least for now.

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My Comment: I am sure that if the polls favor their winning a majority .... they would visit the Governor General to announce an election. The fact is that they do not have the votes for a majority .... hence we are at this status quo, and nothing is going to change. The Conservatives are aware of this .... but the Liberals do not.

Ont. Liberals Pass Byelection Test In St. Paul's

Dr. Eric Hoskins, the new Liberal MPP-elect for St. Paul's, takes in a moment
of applause on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009.

From CTV:

TORONTO — Ontario's governing Liberals managed to hang on to a longtime Toronto seat Thursday, despite fierce attacks on the party's controversial tax harmonization plan and spending scandals at provincial agencies.

Dr. Eric Hoskins, a former adviser to Lloyd Axworthy, won the byelection in the midtown riding of St. Paul's which was held by former cabinet minister Michael Bryant for a decade before he left politics in June.

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My Comment: This result is a surprise, especially with the Liberal government's commitment to raise taxes across the board when harmonization takes place. I did not expect this result.

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Conservatives Survive Confidence Test

Ways and Mean motion approved, thanks to the support of the Bloc Québécois and the NDP

From The Globe And Mail:

The Conservative government survived a confidence test this morning – as expected – thanks to the support of MPs from the Bloc Québécois and NDP.

The 224-74 vote approves a Ways and Means motion that contains measures tied to the January, 2009 budget. Now that the motion has passed, the same measures will be introduced as government legislation. As that bill moves through the House, it will be subject to further confidence votes before receiving final approval and becoming law.

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My Comment: The Liberals should have also voted for the measure. The home renovation program is very popular .... voting against it opens up criticism that can now be directed at them. The Bloc looked at this issue and easily voted for it. It is popular in rural Quebec, and that is where their base is.

As for the NDP .... at 12% in the polls and no money in the bank .... having an election right no would have seriously hurt the party.

If we are going to have an election .... it will be in the spring, and after the Vancouver Olympics.

Don't Expect An Election

From The Montreal Gazette:

"The tumult and the shouting dies; the captains and the kings depart." - Rudyard Kipling

- - -

The tumult and shouting are at full cry, while the captains and the kings aren't going anywhere. Not this week anyway.

This minority House will be in session for a while yet, probably until the budget in March, following the Olympic Games in Vancouver.

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My Comment: I will have to agree. There is definitely no interest in the NDP (or the electorate) to have an election right now .... which is a smart political move on their part.

I doubt that we will have a vote until the spring when the Federal Budget is brought down. Until then .... this blog will have a story each day and a commentary from me on what I think is happening.

Bloc Support For Tories To Avert Election Call

From The CBC:

The Bloc Québécois will support the Conservative government's budget motion on Friday, averting a federal election call this week.

The government is bringing forward a financial ways-and-means motion, which includes the popular tax credits for home renovation. It is considered a confidence issue, and its defeat could trigger an election.

Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe said his party had gone over the motion and supports it, in particular the tax credit.

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My Comment: The tax credit and the UI benefits package helps Quebec in a big way. The Bloc is doing something that is politically smart for them.

One More Reason Why An Election Is Not Going To Be Called

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives hold a nine-point lead ahead of the Liberals, according to the latest Ipsos Reid survey. Photograph by: Paul Darrow, Reuters

Latest Poll Gives Tories 9-Point Lead Over Grits -- The Montreal Gazette

OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives continue to hold a commanding lead over their political rivals, while Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff risks taking the blame in the event of a fall election that Canadians clearly do not want, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll.

At the same time, the NDP have slid to their lowest level of support since the last election, suggesting party leader Jack Layton has an incentive to at least temporarily prop up the Harper government.

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My Comment: A 5 point spread .... I can see an election. But a nine point spread. Hmmmm .... no.

What Is Happening In Quebec

Back In The Quebec Game -- National Post

There are two Quebecs represented in the House of Commons, Montreal and the Rest of Quebec (RoQ). The math of Quebec's 75 seats is very simple. There are 25 seats in Montreal, and 50 in RoQ.

The Liberals are currently a Montreal party, with all 14 of their seats in the city and the bedroom community of Laval. The Conservatives are an RoQ party, with eight of their 10 seats in the 418 area around Quebec City. And the Bloc is two mints in one, with nearly a dozen seats in Montreal and Laval, but most of its current 48 seats in RoQ. Oh, and the NDP has one member, Tom Mulcair in Outremont.

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My Comment: If the Conservatives want to delay an election, one reason will be because of Quebec.